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Does your project need a schedule risk analysis? What is schedule risk analysis?

A schedule risk analysis uses statistics to predict a level of confidence in meeting a project’s completion date. It focuses on uncertainty and key risks and how they affect the schedule’s activity durations. Unless a statistical simulation is run, calculating the completion date from schedule logic and individual activity duration estimates almost always underestimates the overall project duration.

Project managers should treat estimates of activity durations and costs as mere prognostications. Assumptions about the resources and the effort required only allow for the determination of the most likely activity durations. Combining the most likely durations in a complex project will not generate the most likely duration for the overall integrated schedule.

The underestimation of overall schedule duration is even more pronounced when durations or schedule logic contain an optimistic bias, due to (political) pressure and/or instructions from top management to finish earlier than unbiased duration estimates imply.

Contact: project-analytics@ekton.us
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Training brochure (Primavera Risk Analysis): https://lnkd.in/gq7eVyW

schedule risk analysis

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