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YOU THINK YOU CAN SAVE MONEY BY SKIPPING QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS ON A PROJECT? THINK AGAIN.

In this example, the network diagram - from Primavera P6 - shows that the activity B is on the critical path.

Note that the activities (Develop the new baseline...), (Develop the initial dashboard), A2, and D are near-critical path activities. There is some uncertainty as to their durations. In addition, certain #riskevents may affect the activity D, which would result in a finish date 15 days later than April 30 for the activity D.

That is not all. The activity (Develop the new baseline) is at a merge point, which makes it even more unlikely to start on March 23, due to the risks/uncertainties affecting its predecessors.

Now, the icing on the cake: There could be a problem with the quality of the concrete ordered. If confirmed, there are "additional" actions (not included in the schedule) that need to be taken in order for the activity D to continue.

Would you bet your career on the estimated duration and cost of the activity (Manage #Project - Phase 2)?
Wouldn't you perform a quantitative risk analysis, including probabilistic/conditional branching? Think again.

Check out our training courses on project #riskanalysis to learn how to solve these types of problems.

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